Japan: The dangers of ditching the dating game

Japans population is rapidly declining and ageing with forecasts predicting a loss of a third of the population by 2060. Japan’s population fell by a record 0.22 percent to 127.515 million as of 1^st October 2012, while people aged 65 or older surpassed the 30 million mark for the first time (Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry). The number of people aged 14 and younger fell to a record low of 13 percent.

In a country in which you are more likely to go on a date with an electronic girlfriend and men really do suffer from Peter Pan Syndrome (unwilling to commit and fear of growing up) it is unsurprising that about 37% of the population never marry, and the average age of marriage has increased from 25 to 33 years in the last five years.

In most western cultures lack of marriage would not impact the total number of births with 51% of babies in the UK being born out of wedlock in 2010. However, Japans strong traditional social values mean that less than 2% of babies are born out of wedlock. As a result, lack of marriage strongly correlates to a lack of births (or population increase).

A total fertility rate of 2.1 would keep the population stable, assuming no migration. Japan hit this level in 1960, but has fallen persistently below this since 1975. The total fertility rate reached a low of 1.26 in 2005. One of the main reasons for this decline is the changing role of women in society. In the post-1945 years the participation of women in the work force increased from 43% in 1970 to 75% in 2005. These behavioral shifts mean that women are having fewer babies and are having children at later age.

There is also clear indication of increased distancing between men and women. One of the main culprits for causing this trend is Japans Otaku culture - a world of nerds and geeks obsessed with computer games and Manga cartoons – which has led to many Japanese men withdrawing from the whole dating game. Whole sectors of mild porn and dating Sims have been developed to exploit this obsession. The most popular game being Nintendo DS’s love plus released only in Japan on September 3^rd 2009, with total revenue estimated at $225 million for game sales and associated products.

Japan is a very developed country, whose population is a true reflection of a constrictive population pyramid (stage 4) where population is generally older on average, as the country has long life expectancy, a low death rate and also a low birth rate. The population trends in the country add to a debt problem (quadrillion yen – 140% GDP) worse than that of Greece and an uncertain future for a country that still is the third largest economy in the world. There is fear for how the future generation will cope with the increased disproportion in the dependency ratio. 

However the extent to which the ageing population and decreasing youth population will impact the society is skewed as it does not account for increase in health of the overall population. Japanese woman since 1982 have had the highest life expectancy out of 228 countries according to the World Bank. Women are expected to live till 86 and men till 79, with women accounting for 87% of Japans 32,000 centenarians (expected to increase to 320,000 by 2030). However higher life expectancy does not mean longer periods of frailty and sickness as people are reaching older age in better condition than before. This has led to a decrease in the ratio of workers to non-workers, with the majority working over a decade past the traditional retirement age of 65. A workforce decline of 2.5% since 1999, and people retiring later has resulted in the bleak job prospects for the new generation. There is no longer the idea of a guaranteed ‘job for life’ which back in 1979 made Japan the envy of neighboring countries. This lack of security has also been a main factor accounting for the decline in marriage.

In conclusion the future of Japan rests on the need for a series of social and cultural changes in order to prevent their now prosperous mega cities becoming ghost towns, with only structural remnants indicating the population that once occupied them.